Navigate Towards Success in Population Health Management
Trends and Characteristics of the Elderly Demographic Segment
As a healthcare operator, you are in the game for the long-term and therefore surviving and thriving is by paying close attention to the emerging demographic trends in the state/s that you do business. This awareness will help you plan strategically for the short and long-term success of your business by positioning yourself to grab opportunities as they materialize (e.g., change in proportion of revenues received from Medicare / Medicaid / Commercial reimbursement and or change in rates) or respond timely and effectively to emerging threats (e.g., covid, skill shortages in specialties), rather than catching yourself unprepared. It gives you a leg up in the healthcare markets that are known to have razor thin operating margins and therefore need long-term vision, planning and execution to navigate your large ships should you need to change direction/s or course correct (either to use the wind to your advantage or to avoid getting caught in the turbulence)
Why Should You Pay Attention?
United States is aging faster than ever. People that are sixty-five years old and above (Elderly) is the most rapidly growing demographic segment until the year 2060 (The elderly segment grew by 36% in comparison to a modest 3% growth in the under 65-year-olds since the year 2009). By the year 2030, the entire baby-boomer population would have turned sixty-five. Over 81 % of the elderly demographic live with multiple chronic conditions (MCCs), meaning that there are two or more co-existing chronic conditions, often with a behavioral health condition. Cost and complexity of care (delivery and operations) increases with an increase in the number of MCCs in the population you serve. There is also a risk of not meeting the complete spectrum of often complex needs (clinical, social and emotional) of the patients and the ability to engage with them in a way that is meaningful to them and to your practitioners, resulting in gaps and inefficiencies in care delivery. It is currently estimated that over 12% of the population in the United States have 5 or more chronic conditions, with a corresponding 41% share of the total healthcare dollars spend. Most of the expense is attributable towards services such as office visits, prescription medications, ER visits, hospitalizations, and nursing home stays, and sum up to a staggering 14 times bigger spend associated with this group in comparison to individuals without chronic conditions. Over 27% of the elderly live alone, with a median income of $27,398 and 12.8% live below the poverty level (SPL-Supplemental Poverty Level-takes into account housing costs etc) in the year 2019. The gamut of physical, socio-economic, and cognitive impairments is profoundly common in the elderly besides the chronic conditions themselves. Together, caring for our elderly is challenging and complex, especially if you are on the hook to demonstrate meaningfully better clinical, financial and engagement outcomes year after year and avoid negative impact to your bottomline. How (un)common is it for healthcare administrators to know on top of their head the proportion of patients they serve with zero-one-two-multiple chronic conditions stratified and defined? Can you make good administrative, operational and strategic decisions on efficiencies related to staffing, service lines, skillsets needed, business operations expansion / growth and investments without understanding your population to this extent? Most operators know the proportion of marketshare they capture by the type of insurance (Medicare, Commercial etc), rarely you will see anyone say, we have "X" proportion of patients with highly complex needs, and these top five specialties and services are in demand (may have a supply issue) and currently this is our service turnaround time for complex patients vs patients with not so complex needs on a weekly, monthly and YTD trend or even "make" investments in service lines based on evolving-expected-emerging longitudinal morbidity clusters (e.g. of co-existing clusters: Cancer and Depression; Hyperlipidemia-Hypertension-Cardio Vascular Disease) trends in the populations they serve.
If you are a healthcare operator, currently serving communities with a higher proportion of the elderly demographic or expecting to see a rapid growth in the next 1-5-10 years, there is work cut out for your organization. Be prepared to invest in structures, hire skilled elder-friendly-knowledgeable staff (including Geriatricians) and services, to be ready for the market shift and turn the potential issue into an opportunity for your organization.
31 States Contribute to approx. 40% of the Total Elderly Population in the United States
10 Counties account for about 11 % of the total elderly population of the United States
California has 3 and New York has 2 counties that are within the top 10 in the United States with the highest elderly population, followed by 1 each in Florida, Illinois, Texas, Arizona and Nevada
Currently more than 1 in 7 Americans are 65 years or older. This group grew by 36% versus the under 65 years demographic with, 3% growth in the past decade
Number 3 in the World & Growing Demographic
United States ranks 3rd in the number (over 55 million) of “Elderly” (age 65 years and over) in the world, next only to China and India. That demographic is the fastest growing in the country until the year 2060
Population Analysis of the Elderly Demographic Segment in the United States-A State-by-State View
The following three criteria were employed in the Nation-wide population analysis (although other criteria could be used, such as population density). All states were ranked individually and separately for each of the criterion (Table 1 (Blue: High; Green: Medium; Yellow: Low))
State’s share of population towards the total population of USA (Rnk_by_ TotPop-USA)
Proportion of elderly within the state: Ratio of elderly to the non-elderly (Rnk_by_Eldly_State (Prop_Eldly_To_Tot _State_Pop))
State’s share of the elderly towards the total elderly population of USA (Rnk_by_Edly_USA (Prop_Eldly_To_Tot Eldy_USA))
Key Takeaways-
All 50 states (excluding District of Columbia and Puerto Rico) can be grouped into 5 tiers or pillars (Table 7) for further analysis as states that are-
Tier 1: Highly populous with high proportion of elderly across the state (Table 2)
Tier 2: Highly populous states with geographical regions (pockets) of high proportion of the elderly (Table 3)
Tier 3: Medium populous states with geographical regions (pockets) of high proportion of the elderly (Table 4)
Tier 4: Medium-low populous states with geographical regions of medium-low proportion of the elderly (Table 5)
Tier 5: Low populous states with regions of high proportion of the elderly across the state (Table 6)
States with a higher concentration of the elderly across their geographies are in Tiers 1 and 5. They happen to be of medium or small in sizes-geographically. FL, PA, MI, OH in tier 1 fall in the medium range of geographical size, whereas ME, WV, VT, DE, NH, HI and RI in tier 5 are the smallest in size. States that have most of their entire population concentrated within a few counties such as AZ also tend to look like this scenario. Medium to large healthcare providers (systems) with distributed local satellite, feeder locations in these states will benefit from developing comprehensive programs targeting the elderly populations to operate efficiently at (economies of) scale and to maximize market share for these services; whereas the health plans in these regions could offer robust, elderly-friendly, Medicare Advantage plans with comprehensive services tailored to these populations by partnering with a select few major providers that have a focus towards these services.
Taking a county-by-county approach for the remaining states in Tiers 2 and 3 would be wise to identify geographies that need special focus to avail comprehensive services to the elderly. For example, in Tier 2, Los Angeles County, the largest county in the United States also has the largest population of the elderly within a single county in the United States. In looking a bit deeper into the counties that rank among the top 100 in the United States with the elderly population, CA in Tier 2 has 14 counties spread across 56,000 sq miles in comparison to FL in Tier 1 which has 13 counties in 13,000 sq miles, with the highest concentration of the elderly population. Similarly, within Tier 2 states although Texas and New York each have 9 counties in the top 100 counties with the elderly population, the counties in TX are spread out 3X over more area than in NY. Smaller to mid-size healthcare operators (systems) in Tiers 2-4 in the counties with the highest numbers of the elderly can improve their market share drastically by reconfiguring their services to focus on providing comprehensive elderly care and aim to become self-contained, regional centers of excellence for such services. With the economies of scale (and efficiency of operations) achieved by aligning their services to the specific high concentration of the population served, they could demonstrate higher quality (outcomes) and be able to negotiate better reimbursements. Patients benefit immensely by having access to higher quality and efficient care locally and potentially at lower out of pocket costs.
Table1: State-by-State Ranking of Distribution of Elderly (Blue: High; Green: Medium; Yellow: Low)
Table 2: Distribution in Tier 1 States
Table 3: Distribution in Tier 2 States
What are the Comprehensive Services for the Elderly?
The prevalence of multiple co-existing chronic conditions in the elderly results in higher utilization of healthcare services. However, the prevalent conversation in the value-based care is the adoption of the utilization reduction goal, which is to work with the patient in reducing the use of potentially avoidable services (e.g., CMS’s Readmissions Reduction Program / Measures), especially of higher cost services such as emergency and inpatient care by having a primary care provider be the center point of care and supplementing with care coordination services that are either centralized, decentralized or a combination of both approaches. Many organizations that take this approach find it very challenging to achieve the goals tied to VBC simply because over-burdened PCPs and care managers with large panel size/s do not have a magic wand to prevent and or proactively intervene to avoid the ED visits and hospitalizations (Tables 8 & 9).
A model or framework of delivery of care designed, bought-in by the clinical and ancillary care team/s and deployed and adopted in organizations, leads to the application of a universal standard of care especially for high demand and critical healthcare services, efficiently. The model at a minimum should include-
1. Figure out the model of care upfront with who (a designated PCP or the specialist) will be the "Captain of the Ship", driving timely clinical decisions and monitoring and coordinating non-clinical needs of the complex patients, especially with clusters of co-existing chronic conditions where multiple specialists are involved. Clearly define expected key (informational review) touchpoints and patient hand-offs between interdisciplinary care team/s during critical milestones in patient care (e.g. transitions of care)
2. A preferred provider roster for in and out-of-network services that is in-line with efficiency of operations (such as access to relevant and timely data on test results) and patient satisfaction (travel time and out-of-pocket cost) criteria
3. Acceptable wait times for appointments for routine, urgent and emergency care
4. Transitions of care processes (medication and therapy management) and standards especially involving ED, inpatient discharges to home and or skilled nursing and long-term care
5. An expected mechanism to funnel emergent decisions related to care on high-needs patients, outside of the normal business hours
6. Partnerships put in-place to address SDOH needs including food, transportation, housing, ability to pay for meds and dealing with loneliness (especially in the elderly)
To reduce future utilization of expensive services, it is imperative that the patient is understood, wholistically, including past care utilization patterns, unresolved issues, current medical and non-medical problems and needs and have a singular, dynamic plan of action that then becomes the GPS or the map and drives actions that impact care outcomes as expected.
Instead of taking simplistic and arbitrary views to a very complex problem, healthcare organizations aiming to be successful in population health and VBC models need to focus on building up core competencies to effectively care for the complex population and it begins with a clear understanding of the challenges associated with this population. The unambiguous marker of success in any VBC model is-If the patient is doing well (evident by outcomes), then you (as a business entity) are doing well (successful in your mission) as well.
Top specialty services that are key for this population are-
1. Cancer (Pulmonary, Breast, Urinary, Prostrate, Colo-rectal, Skin),
2. Cardiovascular (Stroke, CHD)
3. Ortho-Spinal
4. Allergy & Immunology- (COPD, Rheumatoid disorders of bone and joints)
5. Gastroenterology (GERD)
6. Endocrinology (Diabetes, Kidney Disease, Dialysis)
7. Nephrology
8. Neurology (Parkinson’s)
9. Cognitive-Psychiatry (Alzheimer’s, Dementia)
10. Rehab (Cardio, Ortho & Pulmonary)
11. Audiology
12. Ophthalmology
13. Sleep Disorders
14. Wound Care and
15. Alcohol and Substance Abuse
Access to providers and diagnostic services including lab and imaging that are within 10 miles travel distance from a patient location or provision of reliable to-and-fro travel would ensure adherence to appointments and tests. Decline in cognition and functional ability to perform activities of daily living (ADLs) can pave the path of leading individuals to institutional care and is an undeniable marker as to what is ahead. Services focused on keeping a person at-home with functional abilities in-tact for as long as possible are a not-so secret essential ingredient for success in VBC and is a win-win for patients as well as healthcare operators.
The general but key underlying challenges associated with the high-healthcare utilizing, elderly population besides the multitude of medical diagnoses are-1. Cognitive Decline 2. Mobility and Functional Issues 3. Lower Income and 4. Loneliness. The consequences of these existing factors are manifested in ways such as, lower adherence to medically necessary treatment regimen (drugs, appointments), vulnerability to falls and infections, increase in rates of obesity, hearing and vision loss, reduced access to nutritional food and transportation, prevalence of fear, depression and anxiety resulting in a variety of behavioral health issues which can sometimes lead to reliance on illegal drugs and alcohol dependence. No primary care provider, care manager or healthcare system is poised to address, succeed, and thrive such non-medical complexity at-scale with such a direct impact on clinical and financial outcomes.
The five foundational competencies needed for success in Medicare population management are-
1. An easily accessible interdisciplinary provider network comprising of primary care and specialist providers. “Build” or “Buy” approaches to creating a self-sustaining network are common but partnership and leasing have been seen also. More autonomy in the model means less tighter control centrally. This can have an impact on the availability of clinical and administrative data for monitoring quality, cost, utilization, and decision-making among providers. Consistent application and execution of care delivery model, policies, and standards of care across the network can be impacted also
2. Inter-disciplinary care planning, patient-centered care coordination and complex care management are essentially approaches relied upon to drive expected patient outcomes and are at the heart and center of population management in value-based care. Centralized and de-centralized teams of care managers, care navigators, social workers, pharmacists, providers (primary care and specialties) work together and with the patient and their families in monitoring patients, outcomes, and needs through the different continuums of care namely-Home, ER, Surgery, Inpatient (including Psychiatric), Ambulatory (including Psychiatric), Skilled Nursing, Rehabilitation, Long-Term Care, Hospice and Palliative Care
3. Whether you are in the ever-expanding or a lights-on mode, having a critical eye on your robust partner network, with a continuous feed-back loop on gaps, deficiencies and performance against set and agreed upon standards within the model of care delivery is essential for your continued success in managing populations, their needs and for your operations to run efficiently and smoothly besides allowing you to be in a better place to negotiate reimbursement based on quality, cost, efficiency and outcomes
4. It is imperative to build a an integrated, wholistic model of care involving seamless communication and shared decision making between clinical and non-clinical providers because a patient can have co-existing medical and non-medical needs and that clinical and cost outcomes can be dependent on addressing social needs simultaneously. The strength of your care model can be assessed by how well your system is set-up to respond, address and close the gaps and needs of all colors (clinical and non-clinical) expressed by the patient and their families
5. Technology and data (information, insights, wisdom) plays a crucial part in your success in population management after you have the above key ingredients in place. Now that you have established standards of care, model for delivery of services, robust clinical and non-clinical providers, and a good understanding of the needs of your population, you can specify goals to achieve, criteria for measurement and start measuring and sharing the results. You can improve once you know what the deficiencies are. But adoption of newer technology needs to be based on criteria that are important to serve your strategy and align and aid in achieving your goals. Patient convenience and comfort, safety, efficiency in operations, revenue gains through previously un-tapped, newer, or enhanced services could be such criteria that need evaluated in making the investments in technology or else it could quickly become a distraction from achieving your goals. Patient-centered care plan, Appointment and Medication reminders, Medication pickup sync, Tele-health, Remote monitoring (synchronous and asynchronous), Home-based care and diagnostics, genetic testing
Set up systems to continuously measure patterns in
1. Cost of services (episodic, disease-based, lifetime)
2. Efficacy (therapies and meds based on evidence and standards of care)
3. Utilization (based on evidence and standards of care)
4. Shifts in market share, reimbursements, patient preferences, loyalty, and satisfaction and
5. Provider and staff engagement and ownership in outcomes
Success is when knowledge is used habitually to formulate strategy that is executed meticulously, armed with discipline. Work confidently with Numiny as your trusted partner.
Table 4: Distribution in Tier 3 States
Table 5: Distribution in Tier 4 States
Table 6: Distribution in Tier 5 States
Table 7: List of all Tiers
Table 8: Per Capita Spend, Number of ED Visits and Inpatient Readmissions among patients with major chronic conditions
Table 9: Graphical View of Table 8
References
2020 Profile of Older Americans, Profile of Older Americans | ACL Administration for Community Living
Federal Interagency Forum on AgingRelated Statistics, Older Americans 2016: Key Indicators of Well-Being, Federal Interagency Forum on AgingRelated Statistics, Washington, DC, U.S. Government Printing Office, August 2016
Institute of Medicine 2008. Retooling for an Aging America: Building the Health Care Workforce. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/12089
County Population by Characteristics: 2020-2021, County Population by Characteristics: 2020-2021 (census.gov)
CMS Data Tables, FFS 2018